C.D.C H1N1 Tracker

@ the title link is the latest report and tracking info on the emerging Pandemic of "Swine/Avian" Flu. ( who said Pigs can't fly?)  Preparation not panic is now in order folks. Simple things make a huge difference now. Washing your hands all day is the biggest and covering your mouth and nose when sneezing. Hand shaking and kissing can be suspended till this is over.  Just being aware of the news as this evolves is another important thing you can do. 

W.H.O. - LEVEL 5 - PANDEMIC IMMINENT

NEWS FLASH!! The World health Org. just raised their alert on the so called SWINE Flu epidemic to Alert Status 5. This means a Pandemic is now imminent!!  Get ready folks for disruptions of travel, meetings, maybe even food supplies. Stock up on basic meds. for pain cold etc. face masks, sanitizers. WASH your hands and do not touch your eyes or your mouth if possible as this is the primary way Flu is transmitted from infected services. Try to limit direct contact with other people and stay away from crowds if possible. During this period expect possible cancellations of public events, meetings and closings of schools, and other public venues. 

WE ARE HERE!

THE W.H.O PHASES CHART

The W.H.O. site chart above shows we are presently @ Stage 4 in this evolving & possible pandemic.  What does this mean? 1st of all there are 6 stages and 2 post pandemic stages as well. Stage 4 simply means this new flu virus has been known to produce sustained human to human transmission.  This is a normal process for a human flu virus, they all do this. What still is not known is the  % of lethality. This is really the important figure. Right now over 160 people in Mexico have died from what is suspected Swine flu related reasons. The flu usually doesn't kill people directly. Most people that die from flu die from a myriad of other cascading diseases and physical collapses in the body related to the flu weakening the bodies defenses. This is why the flu normally kills the very old and the very young. Both these groups have either weakened or immature immune responses to the disease or no way to adjust to the diseases effects.  

"The "Spanish Flu 1918 "

The scary thing about a variant of the flu like the 1918 "Spanish flu" was it primarily killed the healthy from the ages of 15 to 40. Why this happens is kind of interesting. In these cases the immune response is so intense that the person's own immune system kills them. ( it's called a Cytokline storm). This happens in other types of diseases as well, but it's extremely rare.  During the Spanish flu people literally caught this and died in hrs. The great majority being healthy young people.  So far reports from Mexico indicate this disease might be following a similar pattern.  Little is known though precisely and the Mexicans are not being very forth coming about who and how many have been confirmed as "tested" victims.  I repeat, during the "Spanish 1918 Flu" millions died directly from the flu itself not from related disease like pneumonia.  

TAMIFLU & RELENZA & A VACCINE

Early reports strongly indicate if caught early ( 1st two days) this disease does respond to the two existing anti-flu drugs on the market Tamiflu and Relenza. No vaccine will be available till Sept. @ the earliest and even then only a top production total of 500 mil. does are possible. This will essentially leave 6 billion people exposed to potential exposure.  

Lethality by the numbers a Perspective look

Flu epidemics or pandemics are gauged by their lethal results by % of those who die from the disease directly or do to directly related disease causes ( like pneumonia or dehydration etc.)  Keep this number in mind when following this. In 1918 it's now believed ( we have no exact nos. only estimates based on the numbers from that era) that somewhere between 2.5% and 5% of those who caught the flu that yr. died. The world's population was about 1.5 billion in 1918 and it's estimated that up to 50% of the pop. caught this disease that yr. At 2.5 % the low end it would have killed 37.5 million people. Estimates are it killed more likely around 50 million. Here's the scary part. It did this in 4 mos.  Here's some perspective of just how massive an event that is. The bubonic plague killed 30 mil. Europeans in 5 yrs. in the late 1600's. WW1 killed 60 Mil. in 4 yrs. in 1914-1918.  On the other side though the tidal wave in 2004 Xmas killed 250,000 in 2 hrs. !  So, lets take that 2.5% figure and look at today's pop. figs. Today the world's pop. is 6.5 billion. Remember, best case only 500,000 will have a vaccination by next fall at the earliest and doses of Tamiflu / Relenza are also very limited and will probably not get to most people with symptoms in time anyway if the hospitals and Drs. offices are over whelmed with sick and dying patients, in a short burst of days and weeks. So, 6.5 billion, lets lower the estimates to 1.5% for modern medicine being somewhat available and because public health officials better understand how to use public health quarantines and avoidance, hand washing , masks, banning public events, closing schools etc. to lower the spread during the diseases peak period. Ok, lets lower it to 1% even. 1% of 6.5 billion die... the number is 65 million people!  Let's pray this isn't anywhere near even 1% lethal, or this one disease event will be the greatest calamity in human history in such a short period of time. I look at it like a huge hurricane or a tidal wave that leaves the building intact and just kills the people. 

AVALON BEATS THE NJDEP

NJDEP COMMISSIONER  MR. MARK MAURIELLO

   

   Avalon beat the NJDEP in court this week and overturned the NJDEP's  attempt to essentially take control of some beach communites right to control their own beaches. It should be noted these were all towns that had become partners in NJDEP funded Beach projects. This was something I warned Margate and Ventnor would happen. That the NJDEP has been thwarted in it's attempt to take control of these beaches is a mixed victory for the public. One possible negative  out come is that communites like Avalon and others might now decide to highly restrict the general public's access to these same beaches and in so doing sight this very ruling. 

POWER MAD

The NJDEP's over reach wasn't a surprise. This is an agency out of control in many respects. The irony here is the agencies attempt to widen public access and provide such things as porta potties and parking for the public will now never happen. In some communites Beach Replenishment will end up amounting to doing nothing more then putting a lot of sand in front of what are essentially private beaches.  Is this what the intent of the State was? The NJDEP has in effect undermined itself with it's arrogance and power grabs. 

The W.H.O. raises Swine Flu to a Level 4 Status!

The World Health Org. has offically raised it's Flu pandemic alert for the Mexican Swine Flu to a level 4 out of 6. This basically means it's too late to contain this and Individuals and Gov'ts, should start to prepare for this virus to spread worldwide in a fairly rapid order. 

What is not know yet is how serious this flu is as far as it's lethality, is concerned. We only know that over 125 people are already dead in Mexico. This doesn't tell us how many others have it though? What's worrisome is this flu like the infamous Spanish Flu of 1918 is also  a novel flu that appeared suddenly in the Spring of 1918. It then spread world-wide, but wasn't really lethal in it's effect till later that fall. Back in 1918 they had no ability to create a vaccine or treat it with antivirals like Tamiflu. So far all the American cases have been treated with no deaths, yet. As this spreads though the fatalities will rise.

  Simple hygenie goes a very long way to helping contain this and to protect yourself. Wash your hands with a sanitizing soap. Wash every time you go out into the public, anywhere around people.  Keep your fingers out of your mouth, nose eyes for the duration. If you do get sick DO NOT go to work or school! Get to a Dr. or hospital for anti-virals if they are available. Avoid large gatherings of people. It's been noted that back in the 1918 pandemic those communities that used quarantine methods and avoidance methods had far lower fatality rates. During the heart of this don't go to places with large numbers of people. If it's particuliarly bad , schools, public meetings , concerts etc. will probably be closed till it passes.

Make sure you have at least a weeks worth of food and fluids, also some basic meds. like pain killers and fever reducers.  

DO NOT PANIC it doesn't help in these situations!!!

Click on the title link for the W.H.O. site and updates.

OCEAN CITY, MD - 2009 SPRING KITE FESTIVAL

Click on the title link for a great powerpt. of this yrs. Ocean City Kite Festival compliments of  Richard Knudson.  You have to click through the first 3 or 4 pics. to get to the festival. Thanks, Rick!!

BEACH REPLENISHMENT- "AUSSIE STYLE"

Beach Replenishment "Aussie style"

They might be down under, but it's obvious from the picture their at least trying to keep up with the latest in  American style Beach Replenishment!  Ok, only kidding, but check out the story that goes along with the picture @ the title link.  Oh, and why is it the Aussies always have the best looking beach hats?

THE MEXICAN FLU - POSSIBLE PANDEMIC??

ATTENTION!!   This is a possible Pandemic alert!! If this Flu-like disease now spreading in Mexico makes it way around the world as some in the WHO ( World Health Org.) say is now possible, it could be the next great pandemic. That's the bad news. The good news, is so far it's treatable with existing anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu and Relenza! More bad news,  there is not nearly enough of either meds. in existance to treat billions of people. 

68 DEAD 

So far 68 known deaths have been reported in Mexico with 1,000 reported and verified cases. This is a very large fatality rate over 6%. The great Spanish Flu in 1918 killed somewhere in the 5%- 10% rate. With public health procedures and anti-virals it's hoped that wholesale disaster can be averted. This is NOT the infamous Bird flu of Asia. That disease doesn't spread from person to person easily and thank God, because it's death rate is over 90%! Stay tuned to your local news sources for updates on this possible spring time pandemic!

Read the story at the title link for more on the Mexican Flu!

THE BIG LIE KEEPS BEING PUBLISHED

   I don't how many stories online and in print I'verecently  read about how the Obama Admin. has cut all funding for beach Replenishment out of it's budget & in particuliar from the recent economic Stimulus bill. Ok, let me say this one more time, it's a LIE and whopper of a lie. The last time a President had a dime in his offical budget for beach replenishment projects was the  in the 1st term of Ronald Reagan ( 1981-84). After that it has been excluded by the OMB and neither have any of these projects gotten the seal of approval from  the President's panel of Science advisors. The LIE being prompted now , is that somehow Obama 's Admin. is the 1st Presidental Admin. to specifically exclude any funding for these Projects from it's budget. 

The story I linked to at the title page is another example of how this LIE is being printed by journalists that only talk with proponents of these Projects ,  like the Mayor of Avalon in this instance.

THE CAR COMPANIES ARE FAILING

THE CHEVY VOLT

It's starting to look like two of the BIG Three US Auto makers are going to go belly up pretty soon.  GM and Chrysler are  going broke. It's the end of an era. Some are saying when this is all over only FORD will still be standing. If this happens and two of the three fail the shockwaves will be felt everywhere in the country, as their suppliers also go belly up. Millions of people will lose their jobs if this occurs. Let's all hope this doesn't happen.

Click on the title link for a good article in the NY Times about this situation.

EARTH DAY NO. 39

THE 2nd EARTH DAY 1971

The 2ndt Earth Day 38 yrs. ago I was a University student in Calif. On that day Ralph Nader came and gave the Earth day speech to us. Ralph spoke outside on a beautiful sunny Calif. afternoon. I walked up afterwards and spoke with him. He was still a young man then, famous and still full of energy. Ralph was much more positive back then. Today, Ralph looks battled scared and he's become a cynical old curmudgeon , he should have married.  As for Earth Day it continues even as we intensify our destruction of the only planet we live on and the only one we know of worth living on. What can I say, except that sadly we are all responsible for the rape and plunder of our dear Mother EARTH / TERRA. So, lets try and go a bit easy on our old Mother. Lighten your load , maybe use one less plastic bag or check out your carbon foot print and lower it. Buy one of those funny looking light bulbs ( flourescent).  Plant a tree or a veggie garden.  Anything, will help.  Ralph would probably prefer you drive less and wear hemp clothes, but what does he know?

Yes, I corrected this blog. A very good friend of mine e-mailed that he had seen Ralph speak on the 1st earth day in 1970 @ Temple U.  Ok, so it was the 2nd earth Day but we both got to hear Ralph which is kind of weird.

PUBLIC VS. PRIVATE

An Editorial in the AC Press today points to a huge and growing gap developing in NJ between Public and Private sector employment. It reports that NJ's public employees on average make $11 hr. more then the average Private sector worker , in overall compensation. Is this a sustainable direction in a supposedly "capitalist society?" It appears that in NJ the proverbial cart ( the public sector) has somehow gotten in front of the horse ( the private sector.) I've read somewhere that in the early 20th century NJ's entire State Gov't's workforce was in the low hundreds. Today it's nearing 90,000! Granted there were far fewer people in NJ in 1908 but nevertheless the ratio: here between all Public vs. Private workers appears to be growing wildly out of whack. These facts might go a long way to expalining why NJ is now buried almost hopelessly in debt and going bankrupt.

Public Contracts

Add to this equation all the other thousands of jobs that depend on Public contracts given to private companies. These companies in many cases simply wouldn't exist without public funding and could be classified as Quasi-public employment. 

EXPANDING PUBLIC SECTOR & SHRINKING PRIVATE SECTOR

What this adds up to in NJ is a rapidly expanding Public sector being fueled by a quickly contracting Private sector in the midst of a deepening Great Recession. Here's another scary fact of this evolving equation , Public employees are twice as likely to be represented by a Union. I'm generally Pro-Union, but in the Public sector where the system is not tied to profitability ( any bottom line) and the politicans we elect to manage this arena are also directly benefiting from the same system and using it to reward it's patrons and followers, where is their any incentive to manage this situation? 

THE OLD ETHICAL UNDERSTANDING 

When I was growing up the ETHIC was that if you decided to work for the Public sector it was a given you got less and this was because working for the Public was considered a secondary class of employment beneath the private sector that paid for it. This ethic has disappeared and in it's place it appears a new ethic has grown up. Is this a better situation? I don't think so, but it's what we now seem to have in developing NJ.

Click on the title link at the top of the page to read the AC Press editorial today.

WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?

   I think this cartoon sums up my take on the economy these days. Nevertheless, I don't believe soft soaping reality with false happy talk works either.  I'd like to hear what some of your takes on the situation are.  I look forward to reading your comments. Thanks!

WHAT SHOULD A COASTLINE LOOK LIKE?

TYPICAL LOOK OF THE NJ COASTLINE TODAY

@ the title link is a well written article from a North Carolina newpaper. It discusses the ongoing debates along the coast these days and especially the role of powerful and wealthy interests in shaping them. I like the opening cronology more then the ending but take a peek, it's as I said well written.

BEACH BANTER:

   Locally, Ventnor has decided to not only charge to walk the whole length of it's newly renovatedVentnor Fishing Pier, but it's doubling some of the fees to do so. Is this a wise move in a increasingly deepening Recession? It seems to me that the Commission is playing into the hands of a very small group of MEN who want the Pier to be their "private " little club. The reaoning behind these increases don't make any sense other wise. The safety issue is a red herring ( no pun intended) and the idea that the users are actually going to pay for the Pier is absurd. Why not charge an entry fee to the Kreischer memorial Library as well or better yet put a toll on the Dorset ave. bridge. Or why not tell the public the truth, which is it's being made a semi-private club for the few MEN who used it in the past and at enormous public expense.   

   In other news the State changed the law that excluded Casino employees from running for and holding public office in Atlantic City. Now the Casinos can directly buy AC city hall and run the town the rest of the way into the ground. 

CHRIS CHRISTIE

CHRIS ( Big guy with worn out ideas)

   I'm usually not that interested in whose the Gov. of NJ  because I don't think it makes all that much difference. Both, parties have managed to drive the state into penury. Nevertheless, I would advise my local readers to avoid this blowhard like the plague. Here's a guy that will just do more of the same for a few ( his pals) and heap the payments on the rest of us. Chris is right out front for any program or project that forwards the fortunes and property of the top 2% like himself and his family.  I think after 30 yrs. of trickle down economics ( standard GOP policy) and deregulating the big Corps. we now know enough to say these policies have failed and failed miserably. Chris Christie is just more of the same tired worn out Country-club GOP tory politics. Christie like BV$H 2 seems to think he's entitled to being  Gov. just because he was born part of the aristocracy.  

SUSAN BOYLE

 Click on the title link and gaze upon what possibly is a once in a lifetime experience for many of us.  I won't give anything away by saying that this performance will probably take your breathe away for a moment and bring tears to your eyes,  as it strikes to the core of what the human spirit is really all about.

STIMULATE THIS?

   

   Not content to go through the normal procedure to get funding for these wasteful porky projects Congressman ( especially Don Lobiondo) are still whining to the Obama Admin. to alter 25 yrs. of Executive branch  budgetry policy and include these projects in the Executive Stimulus bill. What's so galling is the utter recklessness and greed of these people in a time when millions are being given pink slips and are losing homes, health care and everything else.  It's absolutely amazing the level of corruption here.  Both sides of the political aisle are involved in this gross grab for $$ that will end up washing away almost as fast as it's pumped onto the beaches.  It's one thing to watch this stupidity and greed in a time of affluence , but to have to observe these bastards trying to use an economic crisis to push even harder for this nonsense, is simply disgusting. 

PEOPLE or BEACHES

 In NJ at least the Corzine Admin. has had enough and has actually cut back it's funding for this stupidity.  I'm also reading more and more stories online where States and Communites are starting to question this whole approach to funding certain coastal management practices, so called beach replenishment among them. Other priorities are starting to come into focus as tax revenues shrink and social service needs grow @ the same time. Given the choice between people or beaches it appears people are starting to gain the edge for the moment. 

AWAKE & SING!!

Here's a really well written article from the NY Times ironically written by a guy named Frank Rich. Check it out @ the Title link.

EASTER SUNRISE @ THE BEACH

HAPPY EASTER!!

BEACH BANTER: PASSOVER & EASTER EDITION

  

VEGGIES & GOOD NEWS!

  The Weather is warming up down here. Fertilized and seeded the lawn and planted some stuff in the old veggie  garden ( 31 yrs. and going strong)! The price of food hasn't been going down as much as some other things of late. It's a curious deflation with some things deflating and other things holding steady or actually inflating. It seems certain things are indeed recession proof. Anyway, it's spring and the stock markets are in their 4th week of  a bear rally. Since Feb. they've actually gone back up almost 20%! This is good news and we'll take it.  

THE LOCAL ECONOMY :(

However, on the local economic  front things are not so rosy. Our major local Industry CASHINOS have been reporting record declines in gross revenue now for 7 straight months and over all declines for almost two whole yrs.  With every major Casino development project abandoned or put on hold the future for the local tourist based Industry has soured. Nevertheless, there is one bright spot in all this! Our local Congress critter Don Francesco Lobiondo Lord of Millvile and Vineland,  has been going to DC and he's been trying to bring home the bacon ( AKA the pork) , so to speak. The Don was reported to have asked Congress for over 103 mil. for Beach Replenishment projects in the coming yr. Yes, our valiant  Knight has shown that he and only he will now protect us from the Atlantic Ocean!  Here's a thought, if they actually build windmills out off our coasts as planned Don Franseco could someday even emulate another famous knight of literary fame Don Quixote De La Manacha!  So, if someday in the future you see a tall man with a lance riding about on a white speed boat, called the "Rocinante" you'll know who he is. ;)  

   

VENTNOR  FINISHES THE BOARDS !!

   

   More local local news...FLASH...Ventnor finally finishes re planking it's famous boardwalk all the way to Margate.  If Timmay was still Mayor, I'm sure he'd have had a ribbon cutting ceremony and he'd announce that all those evil Margatians that use HIS boardwalk will now have to pay a toll to ride their bikes on it. Or would that be a ribbon cutting ceremony on his new Martindale ave. "spite" Groin?  Oh well, last yr. did have it's high moments didn't it? :)

HAPPY PASSOVER  & EASTER TO ALL!!

TROUBLE IN THE HAMPTONS?

The HAMPTONS 

Here's a good story in the NY TIMES ( @ the title link) all about renting or buying in the Hamptons on Long Island post the 2008 Stock Market  crash.  

SAND KING!

CONG. FRANK LOBIONDO - NJ-R 2nd  SAND KING 

Our own Congressman Frank Lobiondo has requested of Congress $ 103,748,000 for  SAND.  He's requested $7,421,000 for medical and science research and 51, 386.000 for the military. Oh and I forgot, $5,650,000 for Transportation and Urban development.  I guess we see where Frank's priorities are , don't we?  The money for SAND is an earmark request, it is not $$ in the President's budget. Of course, Frank will rant on and on about how he's personally saving So. Jersey's beaches. The truth is a big part of the $103 Mil. would in all likelihood go to his big campaign contributors in the Marine engineering and dredging Industries. Plus, most of the money will also go to Army Corp. Projects. So, Frank is really asking for $ 155,000,000 for military related agencies and projects. It's pretty obvious who runs the Gov't these days isn't it folks? Put defense in front of your request and they throw $$ @ it. Anything else, as they say in North Jersey fougdaboutit!

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Here's a nice place to do a vacation. Never been but hear prices are cheap compared to places like St. Lucia or Aruba. The bad economic conditions are making the entire Caribbean cheaper this yr. and this Island nation even cheaper. With Cuba soon to be opening to American tourists again prices are probably going even lower! Check out the linked site for more info on the beaches and towns of the Island Columbus named Hispaniola. Haiti is on the other half of the Island. I don't recommend a visit there however.

BRITISH BEACHES ARE A MESS

Beach pollution isn't just a US problem Take look @ this article @ the title link, it's about the mess Britain's beaches are rapidly becoming.

ARIANA HUFFINGTON ON THE BANK BAIL-OUT

Ariana Huffington's take on the Obama-Geitner-Summer bank Bail-out plan @ the title link.

MORE BAD NEWS FROM THE ARCTIC

Another story at the title link about disturbing climate changes occurring in the Arctic. As the 21st century progresses the really BIG story is going to be an increasingly rapid pace to the warming and it's planetary effects. In the opinion of some climate scientists we are rapidly approaching some kind of tipping point climate wise. Beyond this pt. things could change radically. The big questions are when and how.

DRIVES ME CRAZY!

Take a look at the blog article I linked to the title. These kinds of blogs and articles drive me crazy. Also, check out the comment I posted to his little rant.

OWNED LOCK STOCK & BARREL

Take look at the article I've linked @ the title. It probably won't be a surprise to many of you, but it's a disappointment in any event. So much for Change we can believe in.

SITTING DUCKS

SITTING DUCK?

   Think this thing is scary? Take a peek @ the article @ the title link for a laugh. Remember what happened to those unsinkable battleships  two generations ago @ Pearl Harbor? The sad part is we never seem to learn the lessons of the last war so we keep on building weapon systems that are for fighting that war. Anyway, like I said read on @ the title link.

SCIENCE FRI. - TIDES

Click on the title link for a good primer on how Ocean tides are created and their different names and seasons.

AC CASINOS POST 46% Decline In Revenue for 4th Qtr. 2008!

You don't think business was BAD last fall in AC, well try on these numbers! Read all about this disaster @ the title link.

THE SWISS SPAGHETTI HARVEST 1957!

It is the 1st of April folks!! :)